Hanmi Financial Corporation logo HAFC - Hanmi Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $33.50
CONSENSUS: $33.50
UPSIDE: 5.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.9% below fair value
Current Price $31.85
Bear Case $20.29 36.3% downside ($20.29 - $31.85) / $31.85 = -36.3% ROTCE 7.3% → 0.78x TBV
Fair Value $35.33 10.9% upside ($35.33 - $31.85) / $31.85 = 10.9% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.36x TBV
Bull Case $44.36 39.3% upside ($44.36 - $31.85) / $31.85 = 39.3% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.70x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.21x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.33 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $228.32 (538% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly