Hanmi Financial Corporation logo HAFC - Hanmi Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $35.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.00
UPSIDE: 16.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.2% below fair value
Current Price $30.17
Bear Case $20.18 33.1% downside ($20.18 - $30.17) / $30.17 = -33.1% ROTCE 7.3% → 0.77x TBV
Fair Value $35.15 16.5% upside ($35.15 - $30.17) / $30.17 = 16.5% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.33x TBV
Bull Case $44.12 46.2% upside ($44.12 - $30.17) / $30.17 = 46.2% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.67x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.14x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.15 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $200.66 (470% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly