Hanmi Financial Corporation logo HAFC - Hanmi Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $33.67
UPSIDE: 7.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.4% below fair value
Current Price $31.46
Bear Case $20.63 34.4% downside ($20.63 - $31.46) / $31.46 = -34.4% ROTCE 7.3% → 0.78x TBV
Fair Value $35.93 14.2% upside ($35.93 - $31.46) / $31.46 = 14.2% ROTCE 9.7% → 1.36x TBV
Bull Case $45.11 43.4% upside ($45.11 - $31.46) / $31.46 = 43.4% ROTCE 11.1% → 1.71x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
8.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.7%) vs. cost of equity (8.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.19x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.7% vs. 8.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.36x on $26.38 tangible book, implying $35.93 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.69.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $33.67
Analyst Range $32.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly