GSK plc logo GSK - GSK plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 16
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $52.45 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $35.25
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $52.45
DOWNSIDE: 2.35%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.6% below fair value
Current Price $53.71
Bear Case $86.18 60.5% upside ($86.18 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 60.5% $8.33 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $100.54 87.2% upside ($100.54 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 87.2% $8.33 × 14x P/E
Bull Case $114.90 113.9% upside ($114.90 - $53.71) / $53.71 = 113.9% $8.33 × 16x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

14.0x
8.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $52.45 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.54 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $52.45 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from GBP into USD using GBPUSD at 1.3292 USD per GBP.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples