The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. logo GS - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 22
HOLD 30
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $980.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,100.00
LOW: $604.00
MEDIAN: $1,030.00
CONSENSUS: $980.78
DOWNSIDE: 1.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.1% below fair value
Current Price $996.73
Bear Case $719.88 27.8% downside ($719.88 - $996.73) / $996.73 = -27.8% ROTCE 10.9% → 0.94x TBV
Fair Value $1,028.40 3.2% upside ($1,028.40 - $996.73) / $996.73 = 3.2% ROTCE 14.5% → 1.44x TBV
Bull Case $1,336.92 34.1% upside ($1,336.92 - $996.73) / $996.73 = 34.1% ROTCE 16.7% → 1.74x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.5%
11.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.5%) vs. cost of equity (11.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.49x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $980.78 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1028.40 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly