The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. logo GS - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 22
HOLD 29
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,203.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $1,325.00
LOW: $1,030.00
MEDIAN: $1,222.00
CONSENSUS: $1,203.17
UPSIDE: 12.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.7% below fair value
Current Price $1065.22
Bear Case $774.37 27.3% downside ($774.37 - $1,065.22) / $1,065.22 = -27.3% ROTCE 10.9% → 0.93x TBV
Fair Value $1,106.24 3.9% upside ($1,106.24 - $1,065.22) / $1,065.22 = 3.9% ROTCE 14.5% → 1.42x TBV
Bull Case $1,438.10 35.0% upside ($1,438.10 - $1,065.22) / $1,065.22 = 35.0% ROTCE 16.7% → 1.72x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.5%
11.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.5%) vs. cost of equity (11.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.66x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1203.17 from 55 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1106.24 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly