Green Brick Partners, Inc. logo GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.0% below fair value
Current Price $66.33
Bear Case $106.83 61.1% upside ($106.83 - $66.33) / $66.33 = 61.1% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $207.47 212.8% upside ($207.47 - $66.33) / $66.33 = 212.8% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $339.15 411.3% upside ($339.15 - $66.33) / $66.33 = 411.3% 29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

22.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%
Implied Market Multiple 15.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $207.47 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions