AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag GRBK as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Green Brick Partners, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for GRBK is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value GRBK?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from GRBK's most recent reported fundamentals.

GRBK - Green Brick Partners, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 64.9% below fair value

Current Price $72.75

Bear Case $106.83 46.8% upside ($106.83 - $72.75) / $72.75 = 46.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $207.48 185.2% upside ($207.48 - $72.75) / $72.75 = 185.2% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $339.16 366.2% upside ($339.16 - $72.75) / $72.75 = 366.2% 29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

22.1%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%

Implied Market Multiple 16.5x

Market is pricing in (growth) 8.2% vs our 22.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $207.48 per share.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions