Genworth Financial, Inc. logo GNW - Genworth Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 11
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.9% below fair value
Current Price $9.11
Bear Case $7.58 16.8% downside ($7.58 - $9.11) / $9.11 = -16.8% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $10.82 18.9% upside ($10.82 - $9.11) / $9.11 = 18.9% ROTCE 3.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $14.07 54.5% upside ($14.07 - $9.11) / $9.11 = 54.5% ROTCE 3.7% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

3.2%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (3.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.5x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 3.2% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $18.19 tangible book, implying $10.82 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (3.2%) is below the minimum investors require (9.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly