Gentex Corporation logo GNTX - Gentex Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 6
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $23.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $26.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $23.00
CONSENSUS: $23.00
UPSIDE: 9.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 24.4% below fair value
Current Price $21.04
Bear Case $24.36 15.8% upside ($24.36 - $21.04) / $21.04 = 15.8% $1.74 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $27.84 32.3% upside ($27.84 - $21.04) / $21.04 = 32.3% $1.74 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $31.32 48.9% upside ($31.32 - $21.04) / $21.04 = 48.9% $1.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
1.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 12.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $27.84 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $23.00
Analyst Range $20.00 – $26.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples