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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $29.00
UPSIDE: 12.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.9% below fair value
Current Price $25.88
Bear Case $21.33 17.6% downside ($21.33 - $25.88) / $25.88 = -17.6% $1.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.66 3.0% upside ($26.66 - $25.88) / $25.88 = 3.0% $1.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $31.99 23.6% upside ($31.99 - $25.88) / $25.88 = 23.6% $1.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.2x
1.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.75, the base-case value is $26.66 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (22 analysts) $29.00
Analyst Range $29.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 8%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples