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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.5% above fair value
Current Price $16.52
Bear Case $13.44 18.6% downside ($13.44 - $16.52) / $16.52 = -18.6% $0.91 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $15.36 7.0% downside ($15.36 - $16.52) / $16.52 = -7.0% $0.91 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $17.28 4.6% upside ($17.28 - $16.52) / $16.52 = 4.6% $0.91 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
0.91$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.91, the base-case value is $15.36 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples