Genie Energy Ltd. logo GNE - Genie Energy Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.2% below fair value
Current Price $14.33
Bear Case $13.52 5.7% downside ($13.52 - $14.33) / $14.33 = -5.7% $0.92 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $15.45 7.8% upside ($15.45 - $14.33) / $14.33 = 7.8% $0.92 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $17.38 21.3% upside ($17.38 - $14.33) / $14.33 = 21.3% $0.92 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
0.92$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.92, the base-case value is $15.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples