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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.8% below fair value
Current Price $13.93
Bear Case $13.52 3.0% downside ($13.52 - $13.93) / $13.93 = -3.0% $0.92 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $15.45 10.9% upside ($15.45 - $13.93) / $13.93 = 10.9% $0.92 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $17.38 24.8% upside ($17.38 - $13.93) / $13.93 = 24.8% $0.92 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.9x
0.92$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.92, the base-case value is $15.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples