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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $33.00
MEDIAN: $43.00
CONSENSUS: $44.60
UPSIDE: 14.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 64.5% below fair value
Current Price $38.79
Bear Case $76.00 95.9% upside ($76.00 - $38.79) / $38.79 = 95.9% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $109.22 181.6% upside ($109.22 - $38.79) / $38.79 = 181.6% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $143.15 269.0% upside ($143.15 - $38.79) / $38.79 = 269.0% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 9.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.6% vs our 11.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $109.22 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $44.60
Analyst Range $33.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 145%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 74% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.60 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 145% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions