AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag GLDD as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for GLDD comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value GLDD?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. GLDD was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from GLDD's most recent reported fundamentals.

GLDD - Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 25.9% above fair value

Current Price $17.00

Bear Case $10.50 38.2% downside ($10.50 - $17.00) / $17.00 = -38.2% $0.75 × 14x

Fair Value $13.50 20.6% downside ($13.50 - $17.00) / $17.00 = -20.6% $0.75 × 18x

Bull Case $16.50 2.9% downside ($16.50 - $17.00) / $17.00 = -2.9% $0.75 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

0.75$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.75)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.75 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $13.50 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.6x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Recent profits ($1.08/share) are 44% above the mid-cycle average ($0.75). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ This company has heavy ongoing investment costs. Valuation shortcuts that ignore those costs can make the stock look cheaper than it really is.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing