Globe Life Inc. logo GL - Globe Life Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 9
HOLD 11
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $183.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $200.00
LOW: $166.00
MEDIAN: $183.00
CONSENSUS: $183.00
UPSIDE: 5.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 43.9% below fair value
Current Price $172.79
Bear Case $281.01 62.6% upside ($281.01 - $172.79) / $172.79 = 62.6% ROTCE 14.6% → 3.65x TBV
Fair Value $307.79 78.1% upside ($307.79 - $172.79) / $172.79 = 78.1% ROTCE 19.4% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $307.79 78.1% upside ($307.79 - $172.79) / $172.79 = 78.1% ROTCE 22.4% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.4%
6.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.25x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.4% vs. 6.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $76.95 tangible book, implying $307.79 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (28 analysts) $183.00
Analyst Range $166.00 – $200.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 68%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $183.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly