GIS - General Mills, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$35.10
DETAILS
HIGH:
$41.00
LOW:
$31.00
MEDIAN:
$34.50
CONSENSUS:
$35.10
DOWNSIDE:
15.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
4.31$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.31, the base-case value is $73.27 per share. DDM cross-check: $54.15.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$35.10
Analyst Range
$31.00 – $41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
109%
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $54.15 (below our primary estimate by 26%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.10 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 109% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples