General Mills, Inc. logo GIS - General Mills, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 22
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $41.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $34.50
CONSENSUS: $35.10
DOWNSIDE: 15.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 43.3% below fair value
Current Price $41.55
Bear Case $60.34 45.2% upside ($60.34 - $41.55) / $41.55 = 45.2% $4.31 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $73.27 76.3% upside ($73.27 - $41.55) / $41.55 = 76.3% $4.31 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $86.20 107.5% upside ($86.20 - $41.55) / $41.55 = 107.5% $4.31 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.31, the base-case value is $73.27 per share. DDM cross-check: $54.15.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $35.10
Analyst Range $31.00 – $41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 109%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $54.15 (below our primary estimate by 26%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.10 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 109% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples