General Mills, Inc. logo GIS - General Mills, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 22
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $35.50
CONSENSUS: $36.00
UPSIDE: 13.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 56.6% below fair value
Current Price $31.83
Bear Case $60.34 89.6% upside ($60.34 - $31.83) / $31.83 = 89.6% $4.31 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $73.27 130.2% upside ($73.27 - $31.83) / $31.83 = 130.2% $4.31 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $86.20 170.8% upside ($86.20 - $31.83) / $31.83 = 170.8% $4.31 × 20x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
4.31$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.31, the base-case value is $73.27 per share. DDM cross-check: $50.76.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $36.00
Analyst Range $30.00 – $43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 104%

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $50.76 (below our primary estimate by 31%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $36.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 104% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples