G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. logo GIII - G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $33.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $32.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $33.75
UPSIDE: 9.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 67.5% below fair value
Current Price $30.82
Bear Case $76.47 148.1% upside ($76.47 - $30.82) / $30.82 = 148.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $94.91 208.0% upside ($94.91 - $30.82) / $30.82 = 208.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $111.88 263.0% upside ($111.88 - $30.82) / $30.82 = 263.0% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 4.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $33.75 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.91 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $33.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 242% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions