G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. logo GIII - G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $34.75
UPSIDE: 26.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 73.7% below fair value
Current Price $27.50
Bear Case $84.25 206.3% upside ($84.25 - $27.50) / $27.50 = 206.3% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $104.50 280.0% upside ($104.50 - $27.50) / $27.50 = 280.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $123.14 347.8% upside ($123.14 - $27.50) / $27.50 = 347.8% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 4.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) -13.2% vs our 7.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $104.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $34.75
Analyst Range $27.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 201%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $34.75 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 201% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions