GIII - G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$39.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$40.00
LOW:
$38.00
MEDIAN:
$40.00
CONSENSUS:
$39.33
UPSIDE:
17.54%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
7.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
5.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-9.9%
vs our 7.5% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $106.20 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$39.33
Analyst Range
$38.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
170%
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 170% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions