G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. logo GIII - G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $39.33
UPSIDE: 9.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.8% below fair value
Current Price $35.90
Bear Case $72.06 100.7% upside ($72.06 - $35.90) / $35.90 = 100.7% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $89.38 149.0% upside ($89.38 - $35.90) / $35.90 = 149.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $105.33 193.4% upside ($105.33 - $35.90) / $35.90 = 193.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 5.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -8.7% vs our 7.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.38 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 43% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 170% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions