Global Industrial Co logo GIC - Global Industrial Co

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.1% above fair value
Current Price $39.63
Bear Case $23.39 41.0% downside ($23.39 - $39.63) / $39.63 = -41.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.08 29.1% downside ($28.08 - $39.63) / $39.63 = -29.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $32.23 18.7% downside ($32.23 - $39.63) / $39.63 = -18.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 22.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 10.5% vs our 6.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions