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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.3% above fair value
Current Price $33.46
Bear Case $23.36 30.2% downside ($23.36 - $33.46) / $33.46 = -30.2% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.05 16.2% downside ($28.05 - $33.46) / $33.46 = -16.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $32.20 3.8% downside ($32.20 - $33.46) / $33.46 = -3.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 19.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.3% vs our 6.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.05 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions