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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 53.0% above fair value
Current Price $42.95
Bear Case $23.39 45.6% downside ($23.39 - $42.95) / $42.95 = -45.6% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.08 34.6% downside ($28.08 - $42.95) / $42.95 = -34.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $32.23 25.0% downside ($32.23 - $42.95) / $42.95 = -25.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 24.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.6% vs our 6.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions