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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.0% above fair value
Current Price $29.74
Bear Case $23.36 21.5% downside ($23.36 - $29.74) / $29.74 = -21.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $28.05 5.7% downside ($28.05 - $29.74) / $29.74 = -5.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $32.20 8.3% upside ($32.20 - $29.74) / $29.74 = 8.3% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 35%
Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $28.05 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions