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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.00
DOWNSIDE: 15.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 513.9% above fair value
Current Price $94.96
Bear Case $9.48 90.0% downside ($9.48 - $94.96) / $94.96 = -90.0% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $15.47 83.7% downside ($15.47 - $94.96) / $94.96 = -83.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $22.69 76.1% downside ($22.69 - $94.96) / $94.96 = -76.1% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 266.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $15.47 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions