Graham Holdings Company logo GHC - Graham Holdings Company

Price: -- --
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.8% below fair value
Current Price $1104.69
Bear Case $1,031.82 6.6% downside ($1,031.82 - $1,104.69) / $1,104.69 = -6.6% $69.13 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $1,252.92 13.4% upside ($1,252.92 - $1,104.69) / $1,104.69 = 13.4% $69.13 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $1,474.03 33.4% upside ($1,474.03 - $1,104.69) / $1,104.69 = 33.4% $69.13 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.1x
69.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $69.13, the base-case value is $1252.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $173.01.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $173.01 (below our primary estimate by 86%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples