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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.0% below fair value
Current Price $1127.68
Bear Case $1,257.92 11.5% upside ($1,257.92 - $1,127.68) / $1,127.68 = 11.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $1,790.08 58.7% upside ($1,790.08 - $1,127.68) / $1,127.68 = 58.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $2,328.89 106.5% upside ($2,328.89 - $1,127.68) / $1,127.68 = 106.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 15.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.3% vs our 11.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 11% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1790.08 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions