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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.4% below fair value
Current Price $1159.84
Bear Case $1,031.82 11.0% downside ($1,031.82 - $1,159.84) / $1,159.84 = -11.0% $69.13 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $1,252.92 8.0% upside ($1,252.92 - $1,159.84) / $1,159.84 = 8.0% $69.13 × 18x P/E
Bull Case $1,474.03 27.1% upside ($1,474.03 - $1,159.84) / $1,159.84 = 27.1% $69.13 × 21x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

18.1x
69.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 18x P/E to adjusted EPS of $69.13, the base-case value is $1252.92 per share. DDM cross-check: $173.01.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $173.01 (below our primary estimate by 86%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples