AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Gerdau S.A.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag GGB as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Gerdau S.A.'s fair value?

Fair value for GGB is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value GGB?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from GGB's most recent reported fundamentals.

GGB - Gerdau S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $5.25 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild

Trading 4.3% below fair value

Current Price $4.75

Bear Case $2.36 50.2% downside ($2.36 - $4.75) / $4.75 = -50.2% FCF −30% × 8x

Fair Value $4.96 4.5% upside ($4.96 - $4.75) / $4.75 = 4.5% Current FCF × 10x

Bull Case $8.27 74.1% upside ($8.27 - $4.75) / $4.75 = 74.1% FCF +30% × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Price Sensitivity

0.0%

EV/FCF Multiple

10.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.25 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $4.96 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.

⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from BRL into USD using USDBRL at 0.1993 USD per BRL.

Key Risks

AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically