GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. logo GFS - GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $77.45 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $77.00
CONSENSUS: $77.45
DOWNSIDE: 9.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 88.5% above fair value
Current Price $85.64
Bear Case $34.90 59.2% downside ($34.90 - $85.64) / $85.64 = -59.2% $2.01 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $45.42 47.0% downside ($45.42 - $85.64) / $85.64 = -47.0% $2.01 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $55.95 34.7% downside ($55.95 - $85.64) / $85.64 = -34.7% $2.01 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.01$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.01)

Implied Market Multiple 42.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $77.45 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.42 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.5x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $77.45 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing