AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies GFL Environmental Inc. as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag GFL as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is GFL Environmental Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for GFL comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value GFL?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. GFL was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from GFL's most recent reported fundamentals.

GFL - GFL Environmental Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $58.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 49.0% below fair value

Current Price $45.56

Bear Case $63.34 39.0% upside ($63.34 - $45.56) / $45.56 = 39.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Fair Value $89.26 95.9% upside ($89.26 - $45.56) / $45.56 = 95.9% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Bull Case $114.39 151.1% upside ($114.39 - $45.56) / $45.56 = 151.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

9.5%

Discount Rate (WACC)

11.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%

Implied Market Multiple 12.2x

Market is pricing in (growth) 2.2% vs our 9.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $89.26 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $58.00

Analyst Range $58.00 – $58.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 54%

Warnings

ℹ This company spends 17% of revenue on big investments like data centers and infrastructure, mostly for growth. We adjusted the cash flow figure to only subtract the upkeep costs, giving a clearer picture of true profitability.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $58.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 54% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7142 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions