The GEO Group, Inc. logo GEO - The GEO Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
UPSIDE: 23.92%
AlphaQuality

AlphaQuality

Quantitative six-pillar business-quality grade

Stable Earnings Power

AlphaQuality — archetype-weighted quantitative grade

C 54.2 / 100 composite

Composite Grade

Composite of six pillars weighted for stable earnings power businesses. Purely quantitative — the six pillars score only reported financials, no analyst input.

Profitability

Weight: 20%
D+ 41.9
  • 5yr Avg ROIC 8.1% 50/100
  • Operating Margin Trend -0.93 pp/yr 22/100
Contributes 8.4 pts toward composite.

Capital Efficiency

Weight: 15%
C- 45.8
  • 5yr Avg ROE 10.1% 60/100
  • 5yr Share-Count CAGR 3.1% 19/100
Contributes 6.9 pts toward composite.

Growth Quality

Weight: 15%
B- 63.8
  • 5yr Revenue CAGR 2.3% 39/100
  • 5yr EPS CAGR 14.1% 86/100
  • Revenue-Growth Years (5) 4/5 80/100
Contributes 9.6 pts toward composite.

Cash Generation

Weight: 15%
B- 64.5
  • 5yr FCF Margin 5.8% 53/100
  • 5yr FCF/NI Conversion 2.11x 78/100
Contributes 9.7 pts toward composite.

Balance Sheet

Weight: 20%
C 53.5
  • Net Debt / EBITDA 2.62x 58/100
  • Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int) 3.12x 46/100
  • Altman Z-Score 2.44 55/100
Contributes 10.7 pts toward composite.

Stability

Weight: 15%
C+ 59.1
  • EPS Volatility (σ/μ) 0.41 42/100
  • Negative-Revenue Years (5) 1/5 80/100
  • Piotroski F-Score 6 67/100
Contributes 8.9 pts toward composite.

Guru Flow

Curated superinvestor sentiment — not part of the AlphaQuality grade.
Dumping

2 of 3 gurus held; 1 added; 1 trimmed; 2 full exits.

Holders
2 -1
Avg Δ position
+114.3%
New buys
0
Full exits
2
As of Q2 2026
How this is calculated

AlphaQuality grades six pillars from 0-100 and weights each by archetype:

  • Profitability (20%) — 5yr Avg ROIC, Operating Margin Trend
  • Capital Efficiency (15%) — 5yr Avg ROE, 5yr Share-Count CAGR
  • Growth Quality (15%) — 5yr Revenue CAGR, 5yr EPS CAGR, Revenue-Growth Years (5)
  • Cash Generation (15%) — 5yr FCF Margin, 5yr FCF/NI Conversion
  • Balance Sheet (20%) — Net Debt / EBITDA, Interest Coverage (EBIT/Int), Altman Z-Score
  • Stability (15%) — EPS Volatility (σ/μ), Negative-Revenue Years (5), Piotroski F-Score

The six pillars read only reported financial-statement fields — no analyst targets or consensus ratings. The archetype that picks which pillar formulas apply is not fully price-free, though: it can route a company to the distressed/ungradable archetype based on price vs. its 52-week high, and beta affects one classification check. A minimum of 5 fiscal years of audited statements is required. Insurers and banks are graded on their own methodology — insurers on loss ratio, its trend and stability, and premiums-to-surplus; banks on the efficiency ratio, its trend and stability, and equity-to-assets — rather than on industrial margin/ROIC signals. Distressed, highly leveraged infrastructure, asset-manager, and other financial businesses are declared ungradable rather than forced into a numeric score.