AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Greif, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag GEF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Greif, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for GEF comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value GEF?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. GEF was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from GEF's most recent reported fundamentals.

GEF - Greif, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $85.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 11.8% above fair value

Current Price $82.32

Bear Case $54.25 34.1% downside ($54.25 - $82.32) / $82.32 = -34.1% $7.75 × 7x

Fair Value $73.62 10.6% downside ($73.62 - $82.32) / $82.32 = -10.6% $7.75 × 10x

Bull Case $93.00 13.0% upside ($93.00 - $82.32) / $82.32 = 13.0% $7.75 × 12x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

9.5x

Normalized EPS

7.75$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($7.75)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $7.75 at a 10x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $73.62 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 10.1x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $85.50

Analyst Range $74.00 – $97.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 14%

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Recent profits ($15.00/share) are 94% above the mid-cycle average ($7.75). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 10.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing