GE Aerospace logo GE - GE Aerospace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $400.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $455.00
LOW: $355.00
MEDIAN: $387.00
CONSENSUS: $400.14
UPSIDE: 12.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 61.7% above fair value
Current Price $354.43
Bear Case $152.35 57.0% downside ($152.35 - $354.43) / $354.43 = -57.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $219.20 38.2% downside ($219.20 - $354.43) / $354.43 = -38.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $287.61 18.9% downside ($287.61 - $354.43) / $354.43 = -18.9% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.8%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 52.1x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.9% vs our 11.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $400.14 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.20 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $400.14 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions