GE Aerospace logo GE - GE Aerospace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 23
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $381.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $425.00
LOW: $355.00
MEDIAN: $377.00
CONSENSUS: $381.00
UPSIDE: 25.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.9% above fair value
Current Price $302.84
Bear Case $148.36 51.0% downside ($148.36 - $302.84) / $302.84 = -51.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $213.45 29.5% downside ($213.45 - $302.84) / $302.84 = -29.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $280.08 7.5% downside ($280.08 - $302.84) / $302.84 = -7.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.8%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 44.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $381.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $213.45 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $381.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions