GE Aerospace logo GE - GE Aerospace

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $406.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $455.00
LOW: $374.00
MEDIAN: $400.00
CONSENSUS: $406.57
UPSIDE: 17.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.3% above fair value
Current Price $345.67
Bear Case $153.69 55.5% downside ($153.69 - $345.67) / $345.67 = -55.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $221.13 36.0% downside ($221.13 - $345.67) / $345.67 = -36.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $290.14 16.1% downside ($290.14 - $345.67) / $345.67 = -16.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.8%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 50.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 23.5% vs our 11.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $406.57 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $221.13 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $406.57 (from 35 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions