GDS Holdings Limited logo GDS - GDS Holdings Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 17
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $67.50
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $59.50
CONSENSUS: $55.63
UPSIDE: 58.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 50% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.3% above fair value
Current Price $35.02
Bear Case $18.65 46.8% downside ($18.65 - $35.02) / $35.02 = -46.8% $0.64 × 16x P/E
Fair Value $23.30 33.5% downside ($23.30 - $35.02) / $35.02 = -33.5% $0.64 × 20x P/E
Bull Case $27.97 20.1% downside ($27.97 - $35.02) / $35.02 = -20.1% $0.64 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

19.6x
0.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (20x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 54.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $55.63 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.30 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $55.63 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1472 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples