GCM Grosvenor Inc. logo GCMG - GCM Grosvenor Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $18.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.00
LOW: $18.00
MEDIAN: $18.00
CONSENSUS: $18.00
UPSIDE: 31.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.9% below fair value
Current Price $13.68
Bear Case $10.88 20.5% downside ($10.88 - $13.68) / $13.68 = -20.5% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.25x TBV
Fair Value $15.54 13.6% upside ($15.54 - $13.68) / $13.68 = 13.6% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $20.20 47.7% upside ($20.20 - $13.68) / $13.68 = 47.7% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

168.1%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (168.1%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 94.71x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.54 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $9.52 (36% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly