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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 85.3% below fair value
Current Price $64.25
Bear Case $305.76 375.9% upside ($305.76 - $64.25) / $64.25 = 375.9% ROTCE 14.5% → 2.19x TBV
Fair Value $436.80 579.8% upside ($436.80 - $64.25) / $64.25 = 579.8% ROTCE 19.4% → 3.20x TBV
Bull Case $567.84 783.8% upside ($567.84 - $64.25) / $64.25 = 783.8% ROTCE 22.3% → 3.80x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.4%
8.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.88x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.4% vs. 8.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.20x on $73.21 tangible book, implying $436.80 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly