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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 21
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $38.50
CONSENSUS: $38.33
UPSIDE: 0.92%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.9% below fair value
Current Price $37.98
Bear Case $63.92 68.3% upside ($63.92 - $37.98) / $37.98 = 68.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $86.09 126.7% upside ($86.09 - $37.98) / $37.98 = 126.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $107.64 183.4% upside ($107.64 - $37.98) / $37.98 = 183.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 9.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -1.0% vs our 9.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $86.09 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (40 analysts) $38.33
Analyst Range $31.00 – $45.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 125%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $38.33 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 125% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions