Genpact Limited logo G - Genpact Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 21
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $39.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $50.00
LOW: $31.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $39.00
UPSIDE: 26.25%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.0% below fair value
Current Price $30.89
Bear Case $49.80 61.2% upside ($49.80 - $30.89) / $30.89 = 61.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $67.15 117.4% upside ($67.15 - $30.89) / $30.89 = 117.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $84.02 172.0% upside ($84.02 - $30.89) / $30.89 = 172.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) -2.5% vs our 9.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.00 from 40 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $67.15 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 40 analysts). Our estimate is 103% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions