Fulton Financial Corporation logo FULT - Fulton Financial Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $26.50
CONSENSUS: $26.50
UPSIDE: 11.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 22.3% below fair value
Current Price $23.87
Bear Case $19.84 16.9% downside ($19.84 - $23.87) / $23.87 = -16.9% ROTCE 10.2% → 1.32x TBV
Fair Value $30.71 28.6% upside ($30.71 - $23.87) / $23.87 = 28.6% ROTCE 13.6% → 2.04x TBV
Bull Case $37.23 56.0% upside ($37.23 - $23.87) / $23.87 = 56.0% ROTCE 15.7% → 2.47x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.59x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.6% vs. 8.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.04x on $15.05 tangible book, implying $30.71 per share. DDM cross-check: $20.73.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $26.50
Analyst Range $26.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $20.73 (32% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly