H.B. Fuller Company logo FUL - H.B. Fuller Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $66.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $73.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $66.80
UPSIDE: 17.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 4.0% below fair value
Current Price $56.96
Bear Case $47.46 16.7% downside ($47.46 - $56.96) / $56.96 = -16.7% $3.79 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $59.33 4.2% upside ($59.33 - $56.96) / $56.96 = 4.2% $3.79 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $71.20 25.0% upside ($71.20 - $56.96) / $56.96 = 25.0% $3.79 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.79$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $66.80 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $59.33 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 38%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples