H.B. Fuller Company logo FUL - H.B. Fuller Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $84.00
LOW: $63.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $73.33
UPSIDE: 26.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.0% below fair value
Current Price $57.78
Bear Case $48.65 15.8% downside ($48.65 - $57.78) / $57.78 = -15.8% $3.78 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $60.81 5.2% upside ($60.81 - $57.78) / $57.78 = 5.2% $3.78 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $72.98 26.3% upside ($72.98 - $57.78) / $57.78 = 26.3% $3.78 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.78$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.33 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.81 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 37%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples