H.B. Fuller Company logo FUL - H.B. Fuller Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $69.00
LOW: $58.00
MEDIAN: $66.00
CONSENSUS: $64.67
UPSIDE: 26.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.8% above fair value
Current Price $51.06
Bear Case $33.00 35.4% downside ($33.00 - $51.06) / $51.06 = -35.4% $2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $41.25 19.2% downside ($41.25 - $51.06) / $51.06 = -19.2% $2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $49.50 3.1% downside ($49.50 - $51.06) / $51.06 = -3.1% $2.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.75, the base-case value is $41.25 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.30.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $64.67
Analyst Range $58.00 – $69.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 36%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $64.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples