Fortive Corporation logo FTV - Fortive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $68.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $64.67
UPSIDE: 14.45%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 116.5% above fair value
Current Price $56.51
Bear Case $20.88 63.0% downside ($20.88 - $56.51) / $56.51 = -63.0% $1.74 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.10 53.8% downside ($26.10 - $56.51) / $56.51 = -53.8% $1.74 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $31.32 44.6% downside ($31.32 - $56.51) / $56.51 = -44.6% $1.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $26.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $64.67
Analyst Range $59.00 – $68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 60%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $64.67 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 60% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples