Fortive Corporation logo FTV - Fortive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $65.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $66.00
CONSENSUS: $65.33
UPSIDE: 4.85%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 40.7% above fair value
Current Price $62.31
Bear Case $35.43 43.1% downside ($35.43 - $62.31) / $62.31 = -43.1% $2.35 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $44.28 28.9% downside ($44.28 - $62.31) / $62.31 = -28.9% $2.35 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $53.13 14.7% downside ($53.13 - $62.31) / $62.31 = -14.7% $2.35 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $65.33 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $44.28 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 35%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $65.33 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples