Fortive Corporation logo FTV - Fortive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $63.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $68.00
LOW: $59.00
MEDIAN: $63.00
CONSENSUS: $63.33
UPSIDE: 5.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 130.8% above fair value
Current Price $60.25
Bear Case $20.88 65.3% downside ($20.88 - $60.25) / $60.25 = -65.3% $1.74 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $26.10 56.7% downside ($26.10 - $60.25) / $60.25 = -56.7% $1.74 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $31.32 48.0% downside ($31.32 - $60.25) / $60.25 = -48.0% $1.74 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.74$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 34.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.74, the base-case value is $26.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (30 analysts) $63.33
Analyst Range $59.00 – $68.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 59%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $63.33 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples