Fortive Corporation logo FTV - Fortive Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 17
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $62.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $63.00
CONSENSUS: $62.43
UPSIDE: 5.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 36.2% above fair value
Current Price $59.13
Bear Case $34.73 41.3% downside ($34.73 - $59.13) / $59.13 = -41.3% $2.35 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $43.41 26.6% downside ($43.41 - $59.13) / $59.13 = -26.6% $2.35 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $52.09 11.9% downside ($52.09 - $59.13) / $59.13 = -11.9% $2.35 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.35$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $62.43 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $43.41 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 35%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $62.43 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples