Fortis Inc. logo FTS - Fortis Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $61.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $61.00
MEDIAN: $61.00
CONSENSUS: $61.00
UPSIDE: 4.56%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.8% above fair value
Current Price $58.34
Bear Case $39.95 31.5% downside ($39.95 - $58.34) / $58.34 = -31.5% $2.61 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $45.65 21.8% downside ($45.65 - $58.34) / $58.34 = -21.8% $2.61 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $51.36 12.0% downside ($51.36 - $58.34) / $58.34 = -12.0% $2.61 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.61$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $61.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.65 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $31.17 (below our primary estimate by 25%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $61.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7098 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples