Fortis Inc. logo FTS - Fortis Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 8
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $53.00
CONSENSUS: $53.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 42.1% above fair value
Current Price $54.90
Bear Case $33.80 38.4% downside ($33.80 - $54.90) / $54.90 = -38.4% $2.41 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $38.63 29.6% downside ($38.63 - $54.90) / $54.90 = -29.6% $2.41 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $43.46 20.8% downside ($43.46 - $54.90) / $54.90 = -20.8% $2.41 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
2.41$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.41, the base-case value is $38.63 per share. DDM cross-check: $31.20.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $53.00
Analyst Range $50.00 – $56.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 27%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $53.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CAD into USD using USDCAD at 0.7102 USD per CAD.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples