FTI - TechnipFMC plc
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$69.86
DETAILS
HIGH:
$83.00
LOW:
$56.00
MEDIAN:
$70.00
CONSENSUS:
$69.86
DOWNSIDE:
1.59%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Oil & Gas E&P
85% confidence
Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
49.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on free cash flow under different commodity price assumptions and a valuation multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.86 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.36 per share.
Warnings
If oil drops to $60/barrel, the stock could fall -87%. Check whether the company can survive at low prices and still pay its dividend.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $69.86 (from 50 analysts). Our estimate is 76% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential