Frontdoor, Inc. logo FTDR - Frontdoor, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $69.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $71.00
LOW: $67.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $69.33
UPSIDE: 13.10%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 42.2% below fair value
Current Price $61.30
Bear Case $71.46 16.6% upside ($71.46 - $61.30) / $61.30 = 16.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $106.05 73.0% upside ($106.05 - $61.30) / $61.30 = 73.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $141.99 131.6% upside ($141.99 - $61.30) / $61.30 = 131.6% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 12.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $106.05 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $69.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 66% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions