FS KKR Capital Corp. logo FSK - FS KKR Capital Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $12.00
CONSENSUS: $11.75
UPSIDE: 15.88%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 75.7% below fair value
Current Price $10.14
Bear Case $29.26 188.6% upside ($29.26 - $10.14) / $10.14 = 188.6% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $41.80 312.2% upside ($41.80 - $10.14) / $10.14 = 312.2% ROTCE 0.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $54.34 435.9% upside ($54.34 - $10.14) / $10.14 = 435.9% ROTCE 0.2% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

0.2%
9.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (0.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.49x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 0.2% vs. 9.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $20.88 tangible book, implying $41.80 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $11.75
Analyst Range $10.00 – $13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 256%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (0.2%) is below the minimum investors require (9.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $11.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 256% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly