FSK - FS KKR Capital Corp.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$11.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$13.00
LOW:
$10.00
MEDIAN:
$12.00
CONSENSUS:
$11.75
UPSIDE:
15.88%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
0.2%
9.4%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.2%) vs. cost of equity (9.4%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.49x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 0.2% vs. 9.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $20.88 tangible book, implying $41.80 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$11.75
Analyst Range
$10.00 – $13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
256%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.2%) is below the minimum investors require (9.4%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.75 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 256% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly