FS Bancorp, Inc. logo FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.60%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 40.2% below fair value
Current Price $45.27
Bear Case $46.50 2.7% upside ($46.50 - $45.27) / $45.27 = 2.7% ROTCE 8.5% → 1.17x TBV
Fair Value $75.73 67.3% upside ($75.73 - $45.27) / $45.27 = 67.3% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.91x TBV
Bull Case $93.26 106.0% upside ($93.26 - $45.27) / $45.27 = 106.0% ROTCE 13.1% → 2.36x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
7.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (7.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.14x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 7.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.91x on $39.60 tangible book, implying $75.73 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly