FS Bancorp, Inc. logo FSBW - FS Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
UPSIDE: 10.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.8% below fair value
Current Price $40.65
Bear Case $45.21 11.2% upside ($45.21 - $40.65) / $40.65 = 11.2% ROTCE 8.5% → 1.14x TBV
Fair Value $73.62 81.1% upside ($73.62 - $40.65) / $40.65 = 81.1% ROTCE 11.4% → 1.86x TBV
Bull Case $90.67 123.0% upside ($90.67 - $40.65) / $40.65 = 123.0% ROTCE 13.1% → 2.29x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.4%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.03x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.4% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.86x on $39.60 tangible book, implying $73.62 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly