Five Star Bancorp logo FSBC - Five Star Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.50
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $45.75
CONSENSUS: $45.75
DOWNSIDE: 5.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.3% below fair value
Current Price $48.37
Bear Case $42.52 12.1% downside ($42.52 - $48.37) / $48.37 = -12.1% ROTCE 10.4% → 2.04x TBV
Fair Value $65.60 35.6% upside ($65.60 - $48.37) / $48.37 = 35.6% ROTCE 13.8% → 3.15x TBV
Bull Case $79.45 64.3% upside ($79.45 - $48.37) / $48.37 = 64.3% ROTCE 15.9% → 3.81x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.32x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.8% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.15x on $20.86 tangible book, implying $65.60 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly