Five Star Bancorp logo FSBC - Five Star Bancorp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.50
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $45.75
CONSENSUS: $45.75
UPSIDE: 8.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.0% below fair value
Current Price $42.35
Bear Case $41.57 1.8% downside ($41.57 - $42.35) / $42.35 = -1.8% ROTCE 10.4% → 1.99x TBV
Fair Value $64.13 51.4% upside ($64.13 - $42.35) / $42.35 = 51.4% ROTCE 13.8% → 3.07x TBV
Bull Case $77.67 83.4% upside ($77.67 - $42.35) / $42.35 = 83.4% ROTCE 15.9% → 3.72x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
7.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.03x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.8% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 3.07x on $20.86 tangible book, implying $64.13 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly