Freshworks Inc. logo FRSH - Freshworks Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $13.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $13.00
MEDIAN: $13.50
CONSENSUS: $13.75
UPSIDE: 2.15%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.6% below fair value
Current Price $13.46
Bear Case $16.98 26.1% upside ($16.98 - $13.46) / $13.46 = 26.1% 16% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair Value $34.20 154.1% upside ($34.20 - $13.46) / $13.46 = 154.1% 27% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Bull Case $54.43 304.4% upside ($54.43 - $13.46) / $13.46 = 304.4% 35% rev growth, 33% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

27.0%
29.0%
12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (27%) × margin expansion to 29%

Terminal Value % of EV 57%
Implied Market Multiple 3.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Projecting 27% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 29% to 29% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $34.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $13.75
Analyst Range $13.00 – $15.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 149%

Warnings

Gross margin of 85% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $13.75 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 149% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
  • SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
  • Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep