Freshworks Inc. logo FRSH - Freshworks Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $11.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $15.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $11.50
CONSENSUS: $11.63
UPSIDE: 28.08%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.3% below fair value
Current Price $9.08
Bear Case $14.27 57.2% upside ($14.27 - $9.08) / $9.08 = 57.2% 16% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair Value $28.65 215.5% upside ($28.65 - $9.08) / $9.08 = 215.5% 27% rev growth, 29% terminal margin
Bull Case $45.53 401.5% upside ($45.53 - $9.08) / $9.08 = 401.5% 35% rev growth, 33% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

27.0%
29.0%
12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (27%) × margin expansion to 29%

Terminal Value % of EV 57%
Implied Market Multiple 2.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $11.63 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.65 per share.

Warnings

Gross margin of 85% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $11.63 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 195% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
  • SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
  • Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep