Freedom Holding Corp. logo FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $138.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $138.00
LOW: $138.00
MEDIAN: $138.00
CONSENSUS: $138.00
DOWNSIDE: 16.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 85.2% above fair value
Current Price $166.09
Bear Case $62.79 62.2% downside ($62.79 - $166.09) / $166.09 = -62.2% ROTCE 8.4% → 1.10x TBV
Fair Value $89.70 46.0% downside ($89.70 - $166.09) / $166.09 = -46.0% ROTCE 11.2% → 1.79x TBV
Bull Case $116.61 29.8% downside ($116.61 - $166.09) / $166.09 = -29.8% ROTCE 12.9% → 2.21x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.2%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.46x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.2% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.79x on $22.27 tangible book, implying $89.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly