Freedom Holding Corp. logo FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $138.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $138.00
LOW: $138.00
MEDIAN: $138.00
CONSENSUS: $138.00
DOWNSIDE: 4.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 60.7% above fair value
Current Price $144.15
Bear Case $62.79 56.4% downside ($62.79 - $144.15) / $144.15 = -56.4% ROTCE 5.7% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $89.70 37.8% downside ($89.70 - $144.15) / $144.15 = -37.8% ROTCE 7.6% → 0.85x TBV
Bull Case $116.61 19.1% downside ($116.61 - $144.15) / $144.15 = -19.1% ROTCE 8.8% → 1.12x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

7.6%
8.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (7.6%) vs. cost of equity (8.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.94x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 7.6% vs. 8.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.85x on $18.16 tangible book, implying $89.70 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (7.6%) is below the minimum investors require (8.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly