Freedom Holding Corp. logo FRHC - Freedom Holding Corp.

Price: -- -- | PRICE TARGET: $180.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $180.00
MEDIAN: $180.00
CONSENSUS: $180.00
UPSIDE: 2.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 198.1% above fair value
Current Price $174.85
Bear Case $41.05 76.5% downside ($41.05 - $174.85) / $174.85 = -76.5% ROTCE 8.4% → 1.10x TBV
Fair Value $58.65 66.5% downside ($58.65 - $174.85) / $174.85 = -66.5% ROTCE 11.2% → 1.81x TBV
Bull Case $76.25 56.4% downside ($76.25 - $174.85) / $174.85 = -56.4% ROTCE 12.9% → 2.23x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.2%
8.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 7.85x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.2% vs. 8.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.81x on $22.27 tangible book, implying $58.65 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly