First Bank logo FRBA - First Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $19.67
UPSIDE: 10.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.6% below fair value
Current Price $17.78
Bear Case $20.32 14.3% upside ($20.32 - $17.78) / $17.78 = 14.3% ROTCE 8.3% → 1.28x TBV
Fair Value $33.32 87.4% upside ($33.32 - $17.78) / $17.78 = 87.4% ROTCE 11.1% → 2.10x TBV
Bull Case $41.12 131.3% upside ($41.12 - $17.78) / $17.78 = 131.3% ROTCE 12.8% → 2.60x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
7.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.12x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 7.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.10x on $15.84 tangible book, implying $33.32 per share. DDM cross-check: $43.17.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $43.17 (30% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly