First Bank logo FRBA - First Bank

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 2
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
UPSIDE: 9.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.9% below fair value
Current Price $15.49
Bear Case $20.96 35.3% upside ($20.96 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 35.3% ROTCE 8.3% → 1.34x TBV
Fair Value $34.38 121.9% upside ($34.38 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 121.9% ROTCE 11.1% → 2.20x TBV
Bull Case $42.43 173.9% upside ($42.43 - $15.49) / $15.49 = 173.9% ROTCE 12.8% → 2.72x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

11.1%
7.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (11.1%) vs. cost of equity (7.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.99x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 11.1% vs. 7.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.20x on $15.60 tangible book, implying $34.38 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly