First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. logo FR - First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $72.13 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $72.00
CONSENSUS: $72.13
UPSIDE: 21.37%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.6% below fair value
Current Price $59.43
Bear Case $69.03 16.1% upside ($69.03 - $59.43) / $59.43 = 16.1% $3.34 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $84.37 42.0% upside ($84.37 - $59.43) / $59.43 = 42.0% $3.34 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $99.70 67.8% upside ($99.70 - $59.43) / $59.43 = 67.8% $3.34 FFO × 30x

Adjust Assumptions

25.3x
3.34$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.34) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 17.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.34 FFO/share with a 25x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $84.37 per share. Dividend yield: 3.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $72.13
Analyst Range $66.00 – $83.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 17%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify