First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. logo FR - First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 9
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $83.00
LOW: $66.00
MEDIAN: $73.00
CONSENSUS: $73.00
UPSIDE: 15.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.7% below fair value
Current Price $62.99
Bear Case $67.50 7.2% upside ($67.50 - $62.99) / $62.99 = 7.2% $3.26 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $82.50 31.0% upside ($82.50 - $62.99) / $62.99 = 31.0% $3.26 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $97.50 54.8% upside ($97.50 - $62.99) / $62.99 = 54.8% $3.26 FFO × 30x

Adjust Assumptions

25.3x
3.26$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.26) × industrial P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 19.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.26 FFO/share with a 25x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $82.50 per share. Dividend yield: 3.1%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $73.00
Analyst Range $66.00 – $83.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 13%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify