Farmland Partners Inc. logo FPI - Farmland Partners Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $17.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $17.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $17.00
UPSIDE: 59.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.9% below fair value
Current Price $10.65
Bear Case $23.41 119.8% upside ($23.41 - $10.65) / $10.65 = 119.8% $0.82 FFO × 29x
Fair Value $28.73 169.8% upside ($28.73 - $10.65) / $10.65 = 169.8% $0.82 FFO × 35x
Bull Case $34.05 219.7% upside ($34.05 - $10.65) / $10.65 = 219.7% $0.82 FFO × 42x

Adjust Assumptions

35.1x
0.82$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.82) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.82 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.73 per share. Dividend yield: 3.1%. DDM cross-check: $24.70.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $17.00
Analyst Range $17.00 – $17.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 69%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $17.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 69% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify