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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 24
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $80.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $70.10
UPSIDE: 29.53%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.6% below fair value
Current Price $54.12
Bear Case $76.35 41.1% upside ($76.35 - $54.12) / $54.12 = 41.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $79.11 46.2% upside ($79.11 - $54.12) / $54.12 = 46.2% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $85.68 58.3% upside ($85.68 - $54.12) / $54.12 = 58.3% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 8.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) -2.1% vs our 3.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.10 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $79.11 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions