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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 23
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $70.38
UPSIDE: 1.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 20.5% above fair value
Current Price $69.42
Bear Case $46.08 33.6% downside ($46.08 - $69.42) / $69.42 = -33.6% $3.84 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $57.60 17.0% downside ($57.60 - $69.42) / $69.42 = -17.0% $3.84 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $69.12 0.4% downside ($69.12 - $69.42) / $69.42 = -0.4% $3.84 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.84$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.84, the base-case value is $57.60 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (48 analysts) $70.38
Analyst Range $60.00 – $82.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 18%

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples