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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 18
HOLD 20
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $85.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $85.00
MEDIAN: $85.00
CONSENSUS: $85.00
UPSIDE: 48.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 75% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 32.8% below fair value
Current Price $57.24
Bear Case $80.02 39.8% upside ($80.02 - $57.24) / $57.24 = 39.8% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $85.16 48.8% upside ($85.16 - $57.24) / $57.24 = 48.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $92.98 62.4% upside ($92.98 - $57.24) / $57.24 = 62.4% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (4% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 9.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $85.00 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $85.16 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions