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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 21
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $81.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $93.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $81.33
UPSIDE: 29.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 7.2% above fair value
Current Price $62.69
Bear Case $46.80 25.3% downside ($46.80 - $62.69) / $62.69 = -25.3% $3.90 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $58.50 6.7% downside ($58.50 - $62.69) / $62.69 = -6.7% $3.90 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $70.20 12.0% upside ($70.20 - $62.69) / $62.69 = 12.0% $3.90 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.9$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.90, the base-case value is $58.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (43 analysts) $81.33
Analyst Range $71.00 – $93.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 28%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $81.33 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples