AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag FND as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for FND is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value FND?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from FND's most recent reported fundamentals.

FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $63.18 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 154.4% above fair value

Current Price $48.21

Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $48.21) / $48.21 = -100.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $18.95 60.7% downside ($18.95 - $48.21) / $48.21 = -60.7% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $3.89 91.9% downside ($3.89 - $48.21) / $48.21 = -91.9% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

12.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%

Implied Market Multiple 64.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $63.18 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.95 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $63.18 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions