F.N.B. Corporation logo FNB - F.N.B. Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 13
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $20.75
UPSIDE: 11.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.2% below fair value
Current Price $18.68
Bear Case $14.00 25.1% downside ($14.00 - $18.68) / $18.68 = -25.1% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.19x TBV
Fair Value $21.78 16.6% upside ($21.78 - $18.68) / $18.68 = 16.6% ROTCE 13.3% → 1.86x TBV
Bull Case $26.44 41.5% upside ($26.44 - $18.68) / $18.68 = 41.5% ROTCE 15.3% → 2.25x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.75 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.78 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $5.71 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly