F.N.B. Corporation logo FNB - F.N.B. Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $20.50
CONSENSUS: $20.67
UPSIDE: 13.70%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.1% below fair value
Current Price $18.18
Bear Case $13.93 23.4% downside ($13.93 - $18.18) / $18.18 = -23.4% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.16x TBV
Fair Value $21.67 19.2% upside ($21.67 - $18.18) / $18.18 = 19.2% ROTCE 13.3% → 1.80x TBV
Bull Case $26.31 44.7% upside ($26.31 - $18.18) / $18.18 = 44.7% ROTCE 15.3% → 2.19x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.80x on $12.02 tangible book, implying $21.67 per share. DDM cross-check: $6.03.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $20.67
Analyst Range $19.00 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $6.03 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly