F.N.B. Corporation logo FNB - F.N.B. Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $22.00
LOW: $19.00
MEDIAN: $21.50
CONSENSUS: $21.00
UPSIDE: 14.63%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 16.8% below fair value
Current Price $18.32
Bear Case $14.16 22.7% downside ($14.16 - $18.32) / $18.32 = -22.7% ROTCE 10.0% → 1.19x TBV
Fair Value $22.03 20.2% upside ($22.03 - $18.32) / $18.32 = 20.2% ROTCE 13.3% → 1.85x TBV
Bull Case $26.75 46.0% upside ($26.75 - $18.32) / $18.32 = 46.0% ROTCE 15.3% → 2.24x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.54x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 13.3% vs. 9.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.85x on $11.92 tangible book, implying $22.03 per share. DDM cross-check: $6.13.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $21.00
Analyst Range $19.00 – $22.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 5%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $6.13 (72% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly