Flowserve Corporation logo FLS - Flowserve Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $92.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $83.00
MEDIAN: $92.00
CONSENSUS: $92.00
UPSIDE: 32.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 23.2% above fair value
Current Price $69.59
Bear Case $45.17 35.1% downside ($45.17 - $69.59) / $69.59 = -35.1% $2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $56.47 18.9% downside ($56.47 - $69.59) / $69.59 = -18.9% $2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $67.76 2.6% downside ($67.76 - $69.59) / $69.59 = -2.6% $2.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.47 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $13.34 (below our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $92.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples