Flowserve Corporation logo FLS - Flowserve Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 16
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.83 DETAILS
HIGH: $98.00
LOW: $83.00
MEDIAN: $91.50
CONSENSUS: $90.83
UPSIDE: 26.58%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 27.9% above fair value
Current Price $71.75
Bear Case $44.89 37.4% downside ($44.89 - $71.75) / $71.75 = -37.4% $2.75 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $56.12 21.8% downside ($56.12 - $71.75) / $71.75 = -21.8% $2.75 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $67.34 6.1% downside ($67.34 - $71.75) / $71.75 = -6.1% $2.75 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.75$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $90.83 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.12 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $13.34 (below our primary estimate by 68%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.83 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples