Flowserve Corporation logo FLS - Flowserve Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $82.00
MEDIAN: $93.50
CONSENSUS: $90.75
UPSIDE: 20.69%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 89.9% above fair value
Current Price $75.19
Bear Case $31.68 57.9% downside ($31.68 - $75.19) / $75.19 = -57.9% $2.64 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $39.60 47.3% downside ($39.60 - $75.19) / $75.19 = -47.3% $2.64 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $47.52 36.8% downside ($47.52 - $75.19) / $75.19 = -36.8% $2.64 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.64$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.64, the base-case value is $39.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $14.02.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $90.75
Analyst Range $82.00 – $94.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 56%

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $14.02 (below our primary estimate by 65%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $90.75 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples