Fluor Corporation logo FLR - Fluor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $64.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $58.50
CONSENSUS: $57.25
UPSIDE: 12.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 2.0% below fair value
Current Price $50.74
Bear Case $44.70 11.9% downside ($44.70 - $50.74) / $50.74 = -11.9% $1.70 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $51.75 2.0% upside ($51.75 - $50.74) / $50.74 = 2.0% $1.70 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $58.79 15.9% upside ($58.79 - $50.74) / $50.74 = 15.9% $1.70 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.7$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.70)

Implied Market Multiple 29.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $57.25 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.75 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.2x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing