Fluor Corporation logo FLR - Fluor Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $56.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $48.00
MEDIAN: $58.00
CONSENSUS: $56.00
UPSIDE: 24.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 12.8% below fair value
Current Price $44.87
Bear Case $44.43 1.0% downside ($44.43 - $44.87) / $44.87 = -1.0% $1.70 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $51.44 14.6% upside ($51.44 - $44.87) / $44.87 = 14.6% $1.70 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $58.44 30.2% upside ($58.44 - $44.87) / $44.87 = 30.2% $1.70 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.7$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.70)

Implied Market Multiple 26.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $56.00 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.44 per share.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing