Fluence Energy, Inc. logo FLNC - Fluence Energy, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 15
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $19.31 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $19.00
CONSENSUS: $19.31
DOWNSIDE: 22.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 218.1% above fair value
Current Price $24.80
Bear Case $6.38 74.3% downside ($6.38 - $24.80) / $24.80 = -74.3% $0.12 × 27x P/E
Fair Value $7.80 68.6% downside ($7.80 - $24.80) / $24.80 = -68.6% $0.12 × 33x P/E
Bull Case $9.22 62.8% downside ($9.22 - $24.80) / $24.80 = -62.8% $0.12 × 39x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

33.0x
0.12$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (33x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 206.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.31 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.80 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $19.31 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples