Five Below, Inc. logo FIVE - Five Below, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 30
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $219.47 DETAILS
HIGH: $255.00
LOW: $180.00
MEDIAN: $220.00
CONSENSUS: $219.47
DOWNSIDE: 0.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.4% above fair value
Current Price $219.50
Bear Case $126.53 42.4% downside ($126.53 - $219.50) / $219.50 = -42.4% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $200.61 8.6% downside ($200.61 - $219.50) / $219.50 = -8.6% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $280.32 27.7% upside ($280.32 - $219.50) / $219.50 = 27.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 32.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $219.47 from 50 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $200.61 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions