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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.94 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.20
LOW: $5.68
MEDIAN: $5.94
CONSENSUS: $5.94
UPSIDE: 20.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 87.3% below fair value
Current Price $4.92
Bear Case $30.19 513.7% upside ($30.19 - $4.92) / $4.92 = 513.7% ROTCE 11.4% → 3.13x TBV
Fair Value $38.61 684.7% upside ($38.61 - $4.92) / $4.92 = 684.7% ROTCE 15.3% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $38.61 684.7% upside ($38.61 - $4.92) / $4.92 = 684.7% ROTCE 17.5% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

15.3%
6.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (15.3%) vs. cost of equity (6.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.51x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 15.3% vs. 6.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $9.65 tangible book, implying $38.61 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1479 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly