Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited logo FIHL - Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 4
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $17.50
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $21.17
DOWNSIDE: 8.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.2% below fair value
Current Price $23.06
Bear Case $26.17 13.5% upside ($26.17 - $23.06) / $23.06 = 13.5% ROTCE 7.0% → 1.31x TBV
Fair Value $46.33 100.9% upside ($46.33 - $23.06) / $23.06 = 100.9% ROTCE 9.4% → 2.33x TBV
Bull Case $58.43 153.4% upside ($58.43 - $23.06) / $23.06 = 153.4% ROTCE 10.8% → 2.94x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.4%
6.3%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.4%) vs. cost of equity (6.3%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.02x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.17 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $46.33 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $21.17 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 149% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly